NIGERIA OVERVIEW

Nigeria has the largest African economy - in close competition with South Africa - and a population of 180 million people. The country lies among the top 30 economies in the world based on GDP volume. The country depends on oil revenues and is therefore very vulnerable to variation in crude oil prices and production level. After growing around 5% between 2010 and 2014 and 2.7% in 2015, Nigeria's economy contracted by 1.6% in 2016, affected by the drop in barrel price and the sabotage of oil infrastructures in the Niger Delta. Nigeria recovered from recession in 2017 (+0,8%), the growth being mainly driven by the recovery in oil production. This timid recovery should confirm in 2018 (growth of 2,1% of the GDP according to IMF), mainly supported by oil sector.   

n 2017, Nigerian economy began to recover slightly but remained fragilised. Availability of currency and reserves have been improved thanks to measures taken in the exchange domain (introduction of an exchange rate for the investors and exporters in April 2017), the rise in oil prices, an attractive return in government securities and a stricter monetary policy. Although it was high, inflation was kept to 15,4% at the end of December 2017, against 18,5% at the end of 2016. Progress has been made in the enforcement of the ambitious infrastructure programme of the development plan (ERPG 2017-2020), but they are limited by the burden of the debt service that absorbs 60% of State revenues. Furthermore, the absence of the President Buhary during more than a semester because of illness delayed the reforms and put into question his ability to govern. The main obstacles to development are the unappropriated energy supply, deficient transport infrastructures, inefficient judiciary system, widespread corruption, together with high inflation. The gap between official value of naira and its value on the parallel market remains significant and the banking system is fragilised by the deterioration of the assets quality.   

Beyond the economic situation of the country, the security situation remains volatile in the northern regions. The northern areas have suffered attacks from the radical Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram, but progress has been made in the previously besieged cities, mainly due to better cooperation between the concerned countries. The terrorist group has subsequently changed its strategy to use dispersion tactics and multiplies suicide bombings. Moreover, militants of Niger Delta, responsible of the attacks on oil infrastructure since 2016, declared the end of the cease-fire in November 2017 and are threatening again the oil production. Despite the country's dynamism, the real challenge for Nigeria is the risk of a demographic explosion. According to the United Nations, the population of Nigeria could reach 730 million inhabitants in 2100, up from 186 million today. This explosion of population is exasperated by the fact that currently half of the inhabitants live below the poverty line, pandemics are rampant (HIV, tuberculosis), infant mortality is high and the country struggles with substantial levels of inequalities. 

COUNTRY FACTS

 
Capital  Abuja 
Population Lagos (9,123,000) ; Kano (3,900,000) ; Port Harcourt (3,761,000) ; Ibadan (3,000,000) ; Kaduna (1,500,000) ; Oshogbo (1,309,000) ; Maiduguri (1,200,000)
Area 923,770 km
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

 

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