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GLOBAL MARKETS

OPEC SEEK BULLS AS THEY REVISE 2020 OIL OUTLOOK

OPEC SEEK BULLS AS THEY REVISE 2020 OIL OUTLOOK

12 December 2019

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its outlook yet again and now forecasts that there will be a small deficit in global oil markets in 2020 and...
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MARKETS DOWN AS OPEC CUTS REPLACED BY TRADE WAR FEARS

MARKETS DOWN AS OPEC CUTS REPLACED BY TRADE WAR FEARS

10 December 2019

Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ including Russia agreed to increase output cuts from 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.7 million bpd...
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OIL MARKETS

OIL MARKETS

This blog is an indepth  and frequently critical analysis of topical issues in the global oil markets  as they relate to Nigeria

 

 An analysis on global oil market and how they effect Nigeria's economic and financial well being. Nigeria's economy is inextricably linked to these markets and the decisions key actors take to safeguard  and promote their own economic objectives. Nigeria principally seeks to excersize its own influence on the global stage through its membership of OPEC. But just how effective is OPEC? Do the key actors share similar policy objectives or political alignments with Nigeria. Has OPEC+ (inclusion of Russia) altered the organisations focus?

The blog also analyses the broader issues in respect of fossil fuels, geopolitical events and their ramifications for Nigeria. We critique the Nigerian government policy decision making and other legislation and the effect it has on Nigeria's prosperity

Friday, 13 December 2019 03:05

TRUMP AGREES PHASE ONE DEAL WITH CHINA BUT NO TEXT YET

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China -US Phase One deal
The sporadic trade negotiations between the US and China have been paused as President Trump has agreed to a phase one agreement in principle as December 15th looms large. Trump reportedly signed off on a phase one trade deal with China, averting the December 15th deadline which would trigger another round of U.S. tariffs on about $160 billion on imports of Chinese consumer goods. The phase one deal was always going to be about banking the easy wins. China has reputedly agreed to buy more US agricultural produce in exchange for tariff relief, the phase-one pact will also include Chinese commitments to do more to stop intellectual-property theft and an agreement by both sides not to manipulate their currencies. The "Trade War" has dominated the last 18 months of global oil markets. The imposition of tariffs and tit for tat reprisals has weighed heavily on global crude oil demand. Demand has slowed just at the time there is far too much crude available. The market has been sensitive to any news of progress, with Trump's tweets creating undue market volatility. Scarred by the events of 2014, OPEC and its partners have worked tirelessly to balance the market, thus ensuring stable…
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Tuesday, 10 December 2019 22:54

PRINCE ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN MAKES OPEC BELIEVERS AS OIL MARKET REACTS

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n a dark place we find ourselves, and a little more, “Difficult to see, "Always in motion is the future
"Like religion, if you are believer you have to practice. Without practice, you are a non-believer. I do not assume anyone in the room is a non-believer. We are here to deliver. The market will have to trust us, the analysts will have to believe us. Without [this] we cannot deliver what we want to achieve, it is as simple as that," Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman. Meeting in Vienna, OPEC and Russia (OPEC+) decided to deepen existing cuts by an additional 500,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of a half of one percent of global production, until the end of March 2020.It is doubtful that OPEC including OPEC+ agreement to deepen production cuts through the first quarter of next year will support the market for anything but the short-term, while Brent crude prices are likely to revert to $60 per barrel by mid-2020 all things being equal. The consensus of financial commentators and analyst amid a larger output cut than expected raises 2020 Brent spot price outlook to $63 from the previous $60. Long-term price is still seen at around $55 per barrel. This commentator now forecasts WTI spot price at $58.50 per barrel with the long-term price at around…
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Saturday, 30 November 2019 00:24

BRENT WTI SLUMP AFTER THANKSGIVING ON OPEC & OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS

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OPEC MEETING IN DECEMBER IN VIENNA
THE DAY AFTER THANKSGIVING THE MARKET SLUMPS The day afer Thanksgiving Brent fell almost $1.44 per barrel and WTI fell nearly $3 per barrel with oil prices seeing their largest single day drop in around two and a half months. The sharp drop has been variously attributed in part to rumours that a disgruntled Saudi Arabia upset over both OPEC and OPEC+ members alike, flouting their production quotas by outright cheating, was preparing to increase its own production to meet its own official quota. This would increase OPEC output by around 510,00 bpd. The Saudis had taken the unilateral decision to only produce 9.8 million bpd as opposed to its full quota entitlement of 10.31 million bpd. They have proved willing mules to shoulder the largest burden of OPEC production cuts, mostly motivated by their strategic objective to list Aramco. It was reported in a bloomberg article as an act to punish and deter the serial offenders in OPEC such as Iraq, Nigeria and Kuwait. Though on reflection the notion of Saudi Arabia punishing other members by increasing production itself does not bear scrutiny. Certainly not at a time when OPEC's influence in balancing global oil markets is deteriorating, but…
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Thursday, 28 November 2019 19:04

HONG KONG ACT MAY TRIGGER SELL OFF IN OIL MARKETS AS CHINA US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS STALL

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Hong Kong Democracy protesters
Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act Just at the time the oil market is struggling to break out it could have done with out this. The Trump administration have enacted legislation which targets China's human rights record and its handling of pro democracy protestors in Hong Kong. The legislation not only backs protestors, it encourages protest. This act will put the Trump Administration further into dispute with the leadership of the Peoples Republic, an act the Chinese authorities see as an unwarranted intrusion into their internal affairs. rump has described the Hong Kong protests as linked to the trade deal his administration has been negotiating with Beijing and voiced a desire to balance those two interests. A furious China have lashed out warning the US of the dark and dire consequences of such legislation. The counter measures they said they would take in retaliation would be firm. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng summoned U.S. Ambassador to China, Terry Branstad to demand that Washington stop meddling in Beijing's domestic affairs. Quite how any sort of trade negotiations can take place in such a toxic environment remains to be seen. Much has been made of the two protagonists establishing an…
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Tuesday, 26 November 2019 21:05

NIGERIA CRUDE GRADES SPIKE AS QUA IBOE PRICED AT $4+ TO DTD BRENT

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QUA IBOE CRUDE OIL PRICE SPIKE
QUA IBOE PRICED AT +$4 PREMIUM TO DATED BRENT Qua Iboe the light sweet crude grade produced by Exxon Mobil rom numerous offshore fields in the Bight of Biafra in southeastern Nigeria is being offered at a $4 per barrel premium to Dated Brent, even though official selling prices published on Wednesday were significantly less . The grade hasn't been valued at dated plus $4 since 2013. Nigerian crude differentials have appreciated significantly with some grades at their highest for years apparently supported by strong demand. Reuters reported the selling price for Bonny Light wasincreased to dated Brent plus 128 cents, from plus 58 cents in November, and Qua Iboe crude oil to 150 cents from 63 cents per barrel last month. Both grades were last offered at around at least $3.50above dated Brent and selling for the highest prices since at least 2014 amid a similar spike for Azeri and North Sea crude. It said both grades were last offered at around $3.50 above dated Brent and selling for the highest prices since at least 2014 amid a similar spike for Azeri and North Sea crude. Spot trade however remained thin as traders waited for Nigerian loading programmes and…
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Friday, 22 November 2019 00:26

ARAMCO IPO SIGNALS THE END OF DAYS FOR OPEC

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ARAMCO IPO SIGNALS THE END OF DAYS FOR OPEC
The end of days for OPEC is nigh, not only has it outlived its usefulness, it is no longer fit for purpose. In a global economy so vastlydifferent from the time the organisation was established the impending Aramco IPO provides a clear indication, if any were needed as to the direction of global oil. The Aramco IPO, the largest IPO in history, will not only serve as the precursor to the demise of OPEC but will also have repercussions for the Kingdom, Shale and the global oil markets. The outlook for the global oil industry looks increasing unfathomable. After the so called "US shale revolution" , which has eroded OPEC’s market position, the new potentially more lethal danger is finally at hand. History has shown that cartels collapse because of recessions, breakdown of co-operation between members, or cheating on quotas, which is the predominant method of controlling prices . We might add to that, when the largest producer and de-facto leader of the cartel places its own economic interests above those of the members of the group. OPEC has seen and been through many challenges since it was established in 1960. It has managed to confound analysts and Critics alike…
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Monday, 11 November 2019 16:41

ROUHANI IRAN ACT TO SABOTARGE SAUDI ARAMCO IPO

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Rouhani announces huge oil discovery same time of Aramco IPO
Iran’s oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told reporters in Tehran today that an oil field whose discovery President Hassan Rouhani announced over the weekend adds only 22.2 billion barrels to the country’s estimated crude reserves. Out of the amount at the site, only a tenth, 2.2 billion barrels can be extracted due to technological limitations. President Hassan Rouhani had claimed only on sunday whilst speaking live on state television from the central city of Yazd, a new oil field had been discovered with reserves of over 53 bilion barrels. He announced that the new field would increase Iran's current proven reserve of 150 billion barrels by about a third to over 200 billion barrels. The field was said to be located in the country's southern Khuzestan province. He went on further to gleefully lash the Trump Administrationm "I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil, the country's workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil," he said, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Rouhani's announcement came only days after Iran announced it would begin enriching uranium, marking another breach of the 2015 JCPOA. The Islamic…
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WHO MAKES THE DECISIONS ON NIGERIAS OIL POLICY

NIGERIAN NEWS

OPEC FLARES UP AS UNREST ERUPTS

OPEC FLARES UP AS UNREST ERUPTS

22 November 2019

Opec may have no appetite to cut oil production deeper when it meets next month, but flaring political crises across the group are once again threatening supply.Unrest erupted in Iraq...
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BRENT WTI MOVE UP ON PROMISE OF US-CHINA TRADE TALKS

BRENT WTI MOVE UP ON PROMISE OF US-CHINA TRADE TALKS

06 September 2019

Brent Oil Futures was up 0.13% at $61.03 a barrel, as of 12:40AM ET (04:40 GMT), while Crude Oil WTI Futures was up 0.12% at $56.37 a barrel. The EIA...
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PRAISE SINGERS GO TO "GREET" NEW GMD NNPC

PRAISE SINGERS GO TO "GREET" NEW GMD NNPC

04 August 2019

If journalism is to have meaning, to fulfill its raison d'etre, then it must be about speaking truth to power; giving a voice to the voiceless. The National Chairman of...
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IS IT A NIGERIAN GAS FLARE COMMERCIALISATION PROGRAM ?

IS IT A NIGERIAN GAS FLARE COMMERCIALISATION PROGRAM ?

31 July 2019

The Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) is a prime example of a project well concieved but poorly executed and unlikely to achieve most of its objectives despite its inherernt...
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VR CAPITAL BUY 25% OF P&ID AS NIGERIA FACE $9BN FINE

VR CAPITAL BUY 25% OF P&ID AS NIGERIA FACE $9BN FINE

05 June 2019

First, a health warning. This article is about recalcitrant, inept and quite possibly corrupt Nigerian politicians and government ministers. It is certainly about incompetence and misconduct in public office. It...
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DISASTER AS UNEMPLOYMENT LEAPS BY 30% TO 20.9m

DISASTER AS UNEMPLOYMENT LEAPS BY 30% TO 20.9m

29 May 2019

Nigeria is sleepwalking into a disaster which has the potential to unleash instability, insecurity and crippling hardship. Unemployment is always a cause for concern, it is the clearest indication that...
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NIGERIA NGIGE UNDEREMPLOYED OR UNEMPLOYABLE?

NIGERIA NGIGE UNDEREMPLOYED OR UNEMPLOYABLE?

08 May 2019

Working on the assumption that the Minister of Labour and Employment, Senator Chris Ngige has not been misquoted it is difficult to understand his recent pronouncement and what now seems...
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NIGERIA ANOTHER MOU ANOTHER DAY

NIGERIA ANOTHER MOU ANOTHER DAY

01 May 2019

Nigeria has announced ambitious plans to double its oil production by 2025, targetting 4 million bpd in six years’ . Maikanti Baru, Group Managing Director at the Nigerian National Petroleum...
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NNPC REFINERY WOES 2019

NNPC REFINERY WOES 2019

24 April 2019

The Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has not unpredictably, stated that Nigeria’s continuous subsidy of petrol consumption means the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) will...
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NIGERIA OPEC STAND FIRM

NIGERIA OPEC STAND FIRM

28 March 2019

Nigeria and other member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as their non-OPEC allies led by the Russian Federation have said they are committed to...
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PALM OIL PRODUCTION UNDERPERFORMS

PALM OIL PRODUCTION UNDERPERFORMS

18 March 2019

PALM OIL PRODUCTION A MEAGRE PERFORMANCE Nigeria from gaining a substantial share of the global oil palm industry now worth $62 billion annually, casting doubts on government’s ability to grow...
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NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION

NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION

18 March 2019

NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION Nigeria is the only OPEC member country that imports gasoline (PMS) and holds the dubious distinction of being the largest importer in the world. The Nigerian...
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IS THE PGB FATALLY FLAWED?

IS THE PGB FATALLY FLAWED?

18 March 2019

IS THE PIGB FATALLY FLAWED? Ten years after the Petroleum Industry Bill began its tortuous odyssey which has included the Bill being broken into four portions, both houses of the...
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CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS

CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS

18 March 2019

CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plans to raise a total of N1.809 trillion from the debt market, in the first quarter of 2019.This is...
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TIN EXPORTS NIGERIA

TIN EXPORTS NIGERIA

17 March 2019

TIN EXPORT NIGERIA Synterra are able to export high grade tin ore from Nigeria. We agregate the Mining production of a number of artisanal miners and consolidate volumes for exportSynterra...
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BERYLLIUM MINING OPPORTUNITIES

BERYLLIUM MINING OPPORTUNITIES

17 March 2019

The Nigeria Solid Mineral and Mining Sector has in effect made the great leap forward which will now allow investors to take advantage of the vast mineral potential Nigeria possess....
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