NIGERIA: THE CRUDE OIL ECONOMY

Synterra the Nigeria Risk Management Consultants provide insight into how the oil markets affect the Nigerian economy. Nigeria's reliance on crude oil receipts is total. At a time of increasing volatility and uncertainty this blog seeks to provide an analysis of the effect the global energy markets have on business in Nigeria, their relationship with OPEC and how local policy decision making affects investment opportunities.

NNPC CLOSE REFINERIES AFTER LOSING $503 MILLION ANNUALLY

When it first emerged the only surprise was that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had for the first time in its history published audited accounts. The fact that this is an historic event says it all. The financial statements provide in part a snapshot of a poorly run organisation with many of its subsidiaries insolvent which was ...
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NIGERIAN PMS DEREGULATION WITH A PRICE CAP SET BY PPPRA

Deregulationit would appear is finally upon Nigeria, or probably not. An incoherent and ostensibly contradictory statement made by The Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA), Abdulkadir Saidu cast doubt on earlier proclamations as he seemed to suggest that the market would not set the price for gasoline and ...
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OPEC+ ALLIANCE PLOT TO FIND A WAY TO PLEASE THE OIL MARKET

The out and out oil price war has now entered its next phase and has become the chess game that is the new contest for market share. The trigger for this shift was always going to be China's resurgent crude oil imports and the seeming revival of a region that appears to have put the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic demand destruction behind it&n...
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NIGERIA LOSES OVER $440M REVENUES AS OPEC PRODUCTION CUTS TAKE EFFECT

Nigeria is projected to have lost over N160 billion in deferred revenue to a cut in the daily crude oil production by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in May. However, the impact on gross receipts may be reduced as the country is expected to close the revenue gap with a substantial increase in the international pr...
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SAUDIS FEEL THE HEAT AS THE U.S. UPS THE PRESSURE ON OIL

Saudi Arabia  made what has been described as  a surprise announcement,  it will voluntarily deepen its crude oil output cuts. The announcement stated that this voluntary output cut would take effect from June.

The cut is an additional  1 million barrels per day which will reduce Saudi  production to the lowest level in 18 years. The ostensible reason given by the Saudis is to  hasten  a recovery from the crash in oil price benchmarks which has pitched them  into austerity. According to Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Arabia wanted to be ahead of the curve.

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WHAT IS BEHIND NIGERIA'S MARGINAL FIELD BID ROUND?

The Nigerian national oil company has eventually come to its senses and arrived at the position every other rational actor in the industry has advocated and postponed  the full blown Oil bid round which was announced last month as scheduled to take place within 2 weeks. 

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IMF LOAN AT A STEEP COST TO THE NIGERIAN MASSES?

The IMF have approved   US$3.4 billion in emergency financial assistance to the Nigerian Government  under the Rapid Financing Instrument to support the authorities’ efforts in addressing the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 shock and the sharp decline in oil prices. The funding is a loan which attracts low interest and needs to be paid back  within 5 years.

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POOR NIGERIANS RESILIENCE TESTED YET AGAIN AS OIL PRICE COLLAPSES

Nigerians have been told they are resilient, as if they have a choice. A flattery conceived to beguile the masses   living in abject poverty. Often repeated  by a well fed political class that have garnered enough wealth to insulate themselves from the harsh vagaries of the Nigerian existence. 

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BONNY LIGHT SLUMPS TO $12 DESPITE OIL MINISTERS PREDICTION

Bonny Light the most recognisable and one of the most sought after Nigerian crude grades last week  traded at $12 per barrel.  The low sweet flagship Nigerian crude had up until last month historically traded at a premium to dated Brent. Bonny Light has become emblematic of the fate of light sweet crude grades that yield high cuts of transport fuels in a world in lockdowns.

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THE HISTORIC OPEC DEAL TO CUT 9.7MBD THAT DOES NIGERIA NO GOOD

Nigeria have agreed to a production cut of 400,000 barrels a day as their contribution to the OPEC+ agreement. This is based on a 23% cut on a production baseline taken from October 2018. Nigeria also produce between 350-400,000 bpd of condensates which are exempt from OPEC cuts. Condensate is a...
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TIME FOR NIGERIA FIRST POLICY WITH OPEC

The much anticipated OPEC++ meeting takes place tomorrow, It is time for Nigeria to be bold and clear eyed in pursuing Nigeria’s best interests. However it remains unclear as to  what  position Nigeria have decided to adopt. We have heard a number of statements from the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Silva, yet they seem vague and difficult to interpret. The policy is unclear, not so much as inarticulate but unarticulated. To start with Nigeria’s petroleum ministry has stated.

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NNPC CHOOSE TO PUMP UP THE VOLUME

The boss of Nigeria's national oil company NNPC, Mallam Mele Kyari has confirmed in a statement released on Monday that, Nigeria is now  producing  2.3 million barrels of crude oil daily, including condensates. The end of the OPEC+ deal has seen the start of a free for all as the agreement...
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SHALE FLEES TO THE SANCTUARY OF PROTECTIONISM IN THE AGE OF TRUMP

 "If I have to do tariffs on oil coming from outside or if I have to do something to protect our ... tens of thousands of energy workers and our great companies that produce all these jobs, I'll do whatever I have to do," ...  . Unless US Shale is about...
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NIGERIAN OIL SHUT-IN LIKE END OF DAYS

NIGERIA BRACES AS CRUDE OIL  SHUT-INS LOOM Brent crude the international oil price benchmark and the basis which Nigeria uses for price discovery of its crude grades fell to $22 per barrel on Monday, its lowest level in 18 years . Such a price if it persists for a short while...
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EXCESS CRUDE ACCOUNT A BRAZEN SLUSH FUND

It simply cannot be the case that an  Excess Crude Account  which has swallowed a whooping $107.4 billion  since it was established should be beyond the scrutiny of  the Nigeria people. If the so called Excess Crude Account (ECA) could talk I suspect it would have a harrowing tale to tell....
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BUHARI TIME FOR CBN TO FLOAT THE NAIRA

Nigeria must now prepare to accept the new reality, the time of windfall booms fuelled by surging oil revenues has come to an end. The world is awash with oil at a time the renewable footprint is ever increasing. More importantly what the global oil market is witnessing in a time of demand destruction is an existential struggle for market share. Nigeria is ill equipped to join this battle.  In the 1980s the Nigerian economy first  fell victim to a calamitous economic decline following a windfall boom  brought on  by crashing oil revenues. The same thing happened in 2014 and as a consequence drove the country into recession . It has now happened yet again in 2020. To make things worse it comes at a perilous time with COVID-19 threatening economic and societal Armageddon.

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RUSSIA WAGE WAR ON US TO END SHALE'S FREE RIDE

RUSSIA AND SAUDIS DECLARE WAR ON THE US.   Many of us have been  brought up in the empirical tradition that avers "if it looks like one, walks like one and quacks like one, it is a duck". If I didn't know better,  I would say that the so called Russia-Saudi...
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OPEC CRASHES NIGERIA'S ECONOMY ; TIME TO LEAVE

When it came it was as abrupt as it was devastating, a collapse in crude oil price futures significant enough to be defined as a material adverse change. In other words a calamity, at a time Nigeria is least able to absorb it.  Indeed the Group Managing Director (GMD) of Nigerian...
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SAUDIS MIGHT REGRET STARTING RECKLESS OIL PRICE WAR

When asked about the proposed OPEC production cuts last week, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told reporters in a show of what now turns out to be misplaced confidence,   "I can not see us not agreeing, because that's very important for the market." He however went on to state that in...
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FINALLY TIME FOR OPEC TO DEAL WITH SHALE

TIME FOR OPEC TO TO DEAL WITH US SHALE     This is no time for OPEC+ to cut production and if I were in charge I would maintain production levels as they currently stand. The main beneficiary of any OPEC cut would be shale. According to Moody’s investor service  60%...
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