471bd07fdaa7b040f7ab8b2a13f8f35b_XL US-CHINA TRADE DEAL?

BRENT WTI MOVE UP ON PROMISE OF US-CHINA TRADE TALKS

Brent Oil Futures was up 0.13% at $61.03 a barrel, as of 12:40AM ET (04:40 GMT), while Crude Oil WTI Futures was up 0.12% at $56.37 a barrel.

The EIA released an forecast predicting U.S. crude oil inventories decreased 4.8 million barrels in the week to August 30.

This comes after the American Petroleum Institute (API) placed crude oil inventory build at an estimated 401,000 barrels for the week ending Aug 29. This made stocks rise to 429.1 million barrels, against expectations of a 2.5 million barrel decline expected by analysts.

Oil prices also gained some traction after improved economic data emerged from China.

Recent data has shownChina’s services sector expanded by the fastest pace in three months in August, driven by new orders. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Investor sentiment has also been raised in Hong Kong since Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s decision to formally and fully withdraw a controversial extradition bill . The Chinese special administrative region has faced much political unrest since June due to the proposed bill.

Though many commentators see the unrest continue as protestors had only one of their five demands met.

Still, adding fuel to the gains is U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s announcement that talks with a Chinese delegate about the U.S.-China trade war have been scheduled for “the coming weeks” in Washington. 

Those talks will likely take place in October but it is unlikely they conclude in a trade agreement. Despite the damage to both economies these two pugilists seem intent on standing their ground. The trade war is the main factor in forecasting oil benchmarks. Comments from any of the actors the markets recognise as being key participants in the trade war have far more sway over market sentiment than any other single factor including OPEC production figures and US inventory numbers
Though both economies have suffered losses, neither seem willing to budge. The trade war has become the main factor of note when forecasting oil demand trends, taking precedence even over OPEC policies and rising U.S.crude oil production 

 

Femi Ogunkolati

 

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Saturday, 17 April 2021
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