NIGERIA: THE CRUDE OIL ECONOMY

Synterra the Nigeria Risk Management Consultants provide insight into how the oil markets affect the Nigerian economy. Nigeria's reliance on crude oil receipts is total. At a time of increasing volatility and uncertainty this blog seeks to provide an analysis of the effect the global energy markets have on business in Nigeria, their relationship with OPEC and how local policy decision making affects investment opportunities.
Nigerian-barrels Nigeria produces Condensates

OPEC BULLY NIGERIA INTO SUBMISSION

Nigeria have been brutally knocked back by OPEC in its attempt to maintain an exemption for its condensates production. OPEC are no longer prepared to exempt condensates counting toward its current quota. Specifically production from the Agbami field. The inescapable conclusion must be that it is now time for Nigeria to leave OPEC. The reality is t...

OPEC-Oil-Bulls OPEC revised 2020 outlook more bullish

OPEC SEEK BULLS AS THEY REVISE 2020 OIL OUTLOOK

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its outlook yet again and now forecasts  that there will be  a small deficit in global  oil markets in 2020 and believes  that the market is much tighter than previously predicted. The new outlook  provided support for crude oil benchmarks as  prices...

OPEC-compensation OPEC demand compensation

SYLVA SHOULD NOT COMPENSATE OPEC

Nigeria agree to compensate OPEC by further cutting production  Nigeria should not be in the nonsensical position that it has to compensate OPEC by making additional production cuts as other producers increase their output. At the 20th meeting of the OPEC, Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) which took place on Wednesday, 15 Jul...

BONNY LIGHT SLUMPS TO $12 DESPITE OIL MINISTERS PREDICTION

BONNY LIGHT SLUMPS TO $12 DESPITE OIL MINISTERS PREDICTION

Bonny Light the most recognisable and one of the most sought after Nigerian crude grades last week  traded at $12 per barrel.  The low sweet flagship Nigerian crude had up until last month historically traded at a premium to dated Brent. Bonny Light has become emblematic of the fate of light sweet crude grades that yield high cuts of transport fuels in a world in lockdowns.

Libyan-oilpipes Libyan Crude set to return

RETURN OF LIBYAN CRUDES PRESSURES NIGERIAN GRADES

LIBYAN LIGHT SWEET CRUDE BAD NEWS FOR QUA IBOE AND BONNY LIGHT The return of Libyan crudes, notably EsSider and Saharan which will largely clear in the Mediterranean at prices that will be competitive against long-haul grades, will put Nigerian grades under severe pressure. The return of Libyan crude has come at the worse possible time as Nigeria s...

SHALE Vs OPEC PART II - WHO BLINKS AS BEARS THREATEN MARKET

SHALE Vs OPEC PART II - WHO BLINKS AS BEARS THREATEN MARKET

If we are to believe energy research firm Rystad Energy, US oil production is on track to a record 13.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2019 with Texas producing over 5 million bpd in excess of every OPEC producer apart from Saudi Arabia . The increase in US...

OPEC BEARS THE PRICE OF US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE

OPEC BEARS THE PRICE OF US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE

OPEC BEARS THE PRICE OF US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE OPEC member states are bracing themselves for a bleak bearish outlook in the short term despite their best efforts to support crude oil benchmarks with supply cuts. The bearish outlook is due to an anticipated slow down in global growth amid the U.S.-China...

WHO NEEDS AN OPEC WHEN YOU CAN HAVE A PUTIN AND MBS

WHO NEEDS AN OPEC WHEN YOU CAN HAVE A PUTIN AND MBS

In the end the only surprise was that it was Putin that announced its confirmation at the G-20 meeting in Osaka  last week. When questioned about the decision to extend OPEC+ cuts, he seemed to confirm the extension even before the meeting had even taken place, confirmation if any was needed...

RUSSIA WAGE WAR ON US TO END SHALE'S FREE RIDE

RUSSIA WAGE WAR ON US TO END SHALE'S FREE RIDE

RUSSIA AND SAUDIS DECLARE WAR ON THE US.   Many of us have been  brought up in the empirical tradition that avers "if it looks like one, walks like one and quacks like one, it is a duck". If I didn't know better,  I would say that the so called Russia-Saudi...

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