NIGERIA: THE CRUDE OIL ECONOMY

Synterra the Nigeria Risk Management Consultants provide insight into how the oil markets affect the Nigerian economy. Nigeria's reliance on crude oil receipts is total. At a time of increasing volatility and uncertainty this blog seeks to provide an analysis of the effect the global energy markets have on business in Nigeria, their relationship with OPEC and how local policy decision making affects investment opportunities.

NIGERIAN GAS FLARE PROGRAM A MESS?

The Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) is a prime example of a project well concieved but poorly executed and unlikely to achieve most of its objectives despite its inherernt potential. That is because it has not been thought through properly. It is over beauracratic with complex and complicated processes, and...
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MT STENA IMPERO SEIZED BY IRAN AS BARGAINING CHIP WITH BORIS

  The catastrophic decision by the UK authorities to seize the MT Grace1 was done either as an act of malign intent by a departing Prime Minister or without thinking through the ramifications of such an action and the damage it might cause to our long term interests. Indeed it is...
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UK CHOOSE US OVER E3 AND JCPOA AS IT SEIZES IRANIAN TANKER OVER SYRIA SANCTIONS

When the end came it came quickly an end that is to Irans policy of strategic patience. In a meticulous well planned and flawlessly executed operation, a detachment of Her Majesty's Royal Marines boarded and seized the Iranian oil tanker MTGrace 1 in waters off Gibraltar. It really did'nt need to...
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WHO NEEDS AN OPEC WHEN YOU CAN HAVE A PUTIN AND MBS

In the end the only surprise was that it was Putin that announced its confirmation at the G-20 meeting in Osaka  last week. When questioned about the decision to extend OPEC+ cuts, he seemed to confirm the extension even before the meeting had even taken place, confirmation if any was needed...
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INSTEX THE FRIEND OF MY ENEMY

The meeting in Vienna among the  signatories of the JCPOA  minus the US was conceived as the last best  chance to save the historic accord. Many commentators thought it lacked the authority to provide a definitive outcome, not least because of the relatively junior level of delegations attending. In an attempt...
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NIGERIA OIL EXPORTS TO EUROPE HIGHEST IN OVER 5 YEARS MITIGATING LOSS OF US MARKETSHARE

According to reports from Platts outages at North Sea oilfields have helped put competing Nigerian oil on pace to arrive in Europe at the highest levels in seven months in June, according to Refinitiv Eikon data and traders. Nigeria is set to export about 905,000 bpd to the continent this month,...
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WILL TRUMP SANCTION AND MAXIMUM PRESSURE STOP IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM?

How likely are Iran to come to the negotiating table with increased sanctions and maximum pressure. The drama surrounding the cancelled US military strike is classic President Donald Trump replete with contradictions, threats and out right misinformation. It was reminiscent of an episode of the FOX hit Series 24. Ultimately at...
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IRAN DOWNING OF US RQ-4 GLOBAL HAWK DRONE ONLY MOVES OIL PRICES MODESTLY

In an action which bought  the simmering tension between Washington and Tehran to boiling point the shooting down of a US Spy drone RQ-4 Global Hawk in the Persian Gulf would have normally sent crude oil prices  spiking as the market sought to price in the anticipated  loss of crude from...
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IRAN DOWN US SPY DRONE SUPREME COUNCIL WARN US OF RED LINES AS TRUMP WARNS OF BIG MISTAKE

The Iranian foreign ministry described the drone as a provocation and by shooting it down they were sending a clear message to the US.  Whatever the Iranian intention was in shooting down the Drone they have ensured the film whose ending we  have all anticipated moves to the next chapter. If...
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